11 Aug 2016

Don't be fooled by 5G

Echoing the theme of an article I read yesterday, about the FCC’s intentional – or at best negligent – duopoly in wired broadband, is this article about the current “5G” hype, and how it seems to be assisting the big telcos in disguising their under-investment in FTTH / FTTP in favor of more-profitable wireless services:

The Next Generation of Wireless — “5G” — Is All Hype

The author writes:

Cynics might point out that by waving their hands around about the coming miracle of 5G — even though its arrival is really a long way off — carriers are directing attention away from the terrible state of fiber last-mile infrastructure in the US. Call me one of those cynics. This kind of misleading tactic isn’t difficult to pull off in the U.S. […] A leading tech VC in New York, someone who is viewed as a thought leader, said to me not long ago, “Why do you keep talking about fiber? Everything’s going wireless.”

This is eerily similar to claims used by the telco and cablecos to justify diminished regulation, by pointing to BPL. The major justification for eliminating ‘unbundling’ regulation, and for not applying it to cable lines at all, was because consumers were going to be able to obtain Internet service over a variety of last-mile circuits, including cable lines, telephone lines, fiber, and power wiring. This, of course, was horseshit – BPL was always a terrible idea – but it was just plausible-enough to keep the regulators at bay while the market condensed into a duopoly.

Given that the telecommunications companies want nothing other than to extract maximum economic rents from consumers for as long as they can, while investing as little as they possibly can for the privilege – this is how corporations work, of course, so we shouldn’t be especially surprised – we should treat the 5G hype with suspicion.

No currently-foreseeable wireless technology is going to reduce the need for high-bandwidth (read: fiber-optic) backhaul; 5G as envisioned by most rational people would, in fact, vastly increase the demand for backhaul and the need for FTTH/FTTP. Be on guard for anyone who suggests that 5G will make investments in fiber projects – especially muni fiber – unnecessary, as they are almost certainly trying to sell you something, and probably nothing you want to buy.

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